Peter Walker, ULI vice-president for Communication Strategy, does not doubt that “Lisbon will continue to attract investment intentions in 2017”.
The top three of the best European destinations for real estate investment in 2017 is dominated by Germany, these places being occupied by the cities of Berlin, Hamburg and Frankfurt; followed respectively by Dublin, Munich and Copenhagen. After Lisbon, in 7th position, the top 10 ends with Stockholm, Madrid and Lyon, again in respective order.
With the core markets of Paris and London now occupying 17th and 27th place respectively, 92% of those surveyed in this study believe in a drop in investment in the United Kingdom. With 48% confident that real estate investment will increase in Europe as a direct consequence of Brexit, 89% are looking forward to seeing political stability in the ‘Old Continent’
Notwithstanding the present unstable geopolitical climate, it appears that “investors continue to see value in real estate investment” in Europe, where alternative assets such as health, senior and student accommodation, as well as housing should continue to attract increasing interest and capital in 2017
In Lisbon, where yields are still significantly higher than in in several core European markets, “investors seek good returns involving some risk”. Additionally, as regards the Portuguese market, the main concerns are linked to the uncertainty inherent in a small-scale economy and with the major focus on seeking a prime product, with the result that investors are looking increasingly for other alternatives in terms of real estate product.
Trading volumes in Portugal should continue at record levels
The Chairman of ULI Portugal and the Managing-Director of the consultants CBRE Portugal, commented on these results, adding that the reality of “real estate post-troika is radically different” from just five or six years ago. His prediction is that in 2016 the total volume of real estate investment in Portugal may be «Slightly less than 2015, but still at record values”, a tendency which professionals hope will continue into the next year
Fernando Ferreira, Associate Director e Head of the Department of Capital Markets of JLL Portugal predicts, “2016 may well be the second best year ever out of the last ten years”. Although he recognises that “we are a market very much on the periphery, and any change can be destabilising”, this specialist believes that “even if there had been a Donald Trump phenomenon in 2014, Blackstone would have invested what they did invest in our country”.
The outlook in tourism is also good, attests Eduardo Abreu, partner in the Neoturis consultancy. “We are relatively optimistic”, given that the country “has highly viable projects, such as the Tivoli or Vilamoura hotels”. In his opinion, “the problem is that very often investors want bigger projects than those existing”.
O General Director of Nickel Real Estate, Aniceto Viegas, adds the necessity for new offices as a response to the growing demand led by the multinationals and notes that, “in spite of urban renewal, unfinished properties and projects are beginning to appear which should be grabbed now”. An idea which, moreover, is supported by Francisco Horta e Costa, who believes that “similar to offices, we should back the construction of more new houses, principally in quantity”.
Manuel Puerta da Costa, executive administrator of the real estate sector of BPI Asset Management, is confident that “the Portuguese debt will not be an important factor for investment during the next twelve months” and that in spite of European uncertainty, will not be significantly shaken. More so because “we have two important elections in Europe in 2017, probably resulting in the ascension of the extreme right. It is a trend which may continue to threaten security, and may end up by benefitting Portugal” as a safe place for investment.