Pedro Lancastre, JLL’s general manager for Portugal, shared with press agency Lusa that, despite the pandemic having prevented a new record, this should be the year with the best results, after 2018 and 2019. Estimates point towards a commercial real estate investment of around 2.700 million euro (3.200 million euro in 2019). The housing segment may reach 23.000 million euro in transactions (25.000 million euro in 2019).
According to the consultant, commercial real estate investment in Portugal recovered during the third quarter, reaching 619 million euro traded, surpassing the 90 million euro invested during the second quarter, the first quarter reflected the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. In terms of the entire year, investment has already reached 2.213 million euro, a number only surpassed, during the last decade, by the two last years.
According to the consultant, the third quarter was heavily boosted by the sale of office park Lagoas Park, for 421 million euro, along with the sale of a set of stores from Leroy Merlin and a 5 supermarket portfolio.
Commenting the numbers shown at the Market Pulse report, Pedro Lancastre explained that «a recovery like this, during the pandemic opens good prospects for the end of the year, since it shows that, despite the setbacks and the high level of uncertainty concerning the situation’s evolution, investors are still active. They believe in the market’s fundamentals, remaining interested in the traditional segments, where the occupational activity is more affected, such as the office and retail segments and also hotels».
Closing the 3rd quarter, «we know that the operations which were ongoing continue and, the majority of them, with no price adjustments. Interest on traditional segments remains, with some added caution in terms of real estate development, concerning offices and, of course, retail and hotels, while, at the same time, the alternative segments are offering great opportunities. Considering the developing businesses pipeline, we believe the 4th quarter activity can be similar to that of the 3rd quarter».
2021 more encouraging
2021 also shows good prospects for these businesses. The transactions on the pipeline and the signs of economic recovery which are starting to be felt, allow Pedro Lancastre to draw a more positive scenario, which may surpass this year’s numbers: «Portugal might even come out as one of the winners in terms of real estate in 2021 and the following years» since it is «a country where people want to live, work and study», quoted Expresso.
In order to achieve that scenario, he considered it will be essential to have legal stability. And he alerted for the fact that the «golden visa» regime should be maintained without the changes included in the legislation authorisation from the 2020 State Budget.
Pedro Lancastre attested that commercial assets’ prices remained stable throughout the year and that this trend should continue, with possible «pressure» limited to «more suburban areas and secondary cities».
Housing will be more resistant in city centres
Pedro Lancastre identified a price stabilisation trend within this pandemic scenario, and a «downward correction» for the near future, but «not within the main city centres», at least in terms of selling and purchasing prices.
In terms of rental, the scenario will be different, since there will more offer on the market of houses which were under local accommodation. But he believes this situation will be contained in time when tourism returns.