The Spanish real estate market will continue its stability in 2025, supported by the recovery in demand, macroeconomic stability and greater flexibility in access to financing. According to data from the National Statistics Institute (INE), in 2024 there were 641,919 home sales and purchases, 10% more than in 2023. By 2025, CaixaBank Research forecasts that transactions will reach 650,000, consolidating the upward trend. However, a slight contraction to 620,000 sales is expected in 2026, attributed to a lower impact of lower interest rates, a possible slowdown in economic growth and an adjustment in pent-up demand after the high interest rates of 2022-2023.
Despite the growth in the number of transactions, access to housing remains a challenge. In 2024, house prices increased by 5.8% in appraised value, according to the Ministry of Housing and Urban Agenda, while the INE recorded an 8.4% rise in transactions.
The lack of sufficient supply has generated a shift in demand towards peripheral areas, a pattern known as the ‘oil slick effect’, especially visible in large cities such as Madrid and Barcelona. In these areas, prices have followed an upward trend, driven by the arrival of new buyers looking for more affordable options.
The real estate development sector continues to expand, but supply continues to fall short of pent-up demand. In 2024, 127,721 new building permits were granted, 16.66% more than in 2023, according to the Ministry of Housing.
By 2025, the sector's forecasts place approvals at around 135,000 units, with a possible rise to 145,000 in 2026. Despite this growth, new housing construction continues to lag behind new household formation, which will continue to put pressure on prices and affect affordability.
In addition, the lack of serviced land and high construction costs have slowed the delivery of new housing, limiting the positive impact that new construction could have on price moderation.
The rental market remains under upward pressure, driven by population growth, difficulties in access to purchase and labour mobility. CaixaBank Research highlights that in 2024, rental prices rose by 6%, with increases of more than 8% in cities with high demand, such as Madrid and Barcelona.
