In 2026, investment in income-generating real estate in Portugal could reach around €2.4 billion, slightly below the volume invested in 2025. This was one of the main conclusions presented by CBRE during the "Real Estate Market Outlook" event, which the consultancy firm organised on Wednesday at its offices in Lisbon.
In 2025, CBRE estimates that around €2.7 billion will have been invested in Portuguese commercial real estate, 17% more than the volume invested in 2024. This growth is considered "more robust than in previous years" due to the diversification of capital across various market sectors. In this case, retail leads the way, followed closely by offices, hotels, industrial & logistics, alternatives and residential. The alternatives segment does not include CBRE's Agribusiness business, but the consultancy firm assures us that it recorded significant growth in 2025, and "the sales potential for this year is also very high. We have seen great interest from investors".
"How not to invest in Portugal?"
Foreign investment remains the main driver of investment, accounting for over 60% of the volume invested, but domestic investors have increased their share. This can be explained by some large transactions involving Portuguese capital, but also because, according to CBRE, there is now a greater allocation of capital from small savers to real estate funds, at a time when they are presented as good investment alternatives to low-yield term deposits or an overly volatile and unpredictable stock market.
In terms of international perception, investors continue to see an interesting balance in Portugal, particularly in terms of yields. José Maria Moutinho, Head of Research at CBRE Portugal, explains that "Portugal's risk, compared to other countries, is more adjusted, particularly in relation to other countries that already have risk premiums compared to us due to sovereign debt, which is not our case, as we are reducing our debt. And Portugal continues to have the highest returns in relation to costs in the country. Therefore, if we want to promote the country, the question should actually be "how not to invest in Portugal?".
Furthermore, the fact that Portugal is peripheral has advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, it is far from the "centre of action" where the European economic system is located, but on the other hand, it may be less affected "when things are not going so well".
Prime office rents hit record highs of €32/sqm/month
Last year, for the first time, prime rents in the Lisbon market reached €32/sqm/month and were no longer limited to CBD1, extending to Zone 4, or the "Ribeirinha and Historic Centre" zone, which can be explained by three specific transactions on Rua D. Luís I and in Príncipe Real. This brings it closer to the €42 seen in Madrid or Barcelona.
While the pandemic led to expectations of a kind of revolution in workspaces, due to the widespread adoption of remote working, the truth is that this revolution did not happen, and remote working seems to have stabilised. Although the hybrid model is a certainty (regardless of the number of days agreed in each case), offices have adapted to accommodate employees at different times and in different ways. "The experience that is desired in offices today also takes up square metres," says André Almada, Senior Director of Office Leasing at CBRE Portugal.
In any case, what is certain is that "when there is a good asset in the right area, demand is very disproportionate, and there is a large rental premium," says José Maria Moutinho. Proof of this is that, according to CBRE, "we have never started the year with such a robust demand pipeline as this year. CBRE alone is working with 50,000 square metres of demand, all of it in Next Generation Office Buildings that are currently under construction. This shows the vitality of the office market in Lisbon, and also in Porto. The demand is there, it risks pre-leasing and the purchase of assets under construction," explains André Almada.
He gives the example of the EntreCampos offices, owned by Fidelidade Property, whose construction began about six months ago, "and we are already seeing high demand. If this product exists, there is demand waiting," particularly from companies linked to the financial sector.
The expectation is that occupancy will once again exceed 250,000 square metres in Lisbon this year.
Booming tourism drives hotel and retail sectors
The more than 30 million tourists welcomed in 2025 boosted the Portuguese hotel industry, and their numbers are expected to continue to grow this year, albeit at a more moderate pace. As a result, "we have seen significant investment in hotels. This year could have been even better if two major transactions had not been postponed until 2026". José Maria Moutinho confirms that "the luxury and upscale segment will continue to be very important".
Admitting that the tourist load in cities such as Lisbon and Porto is high, CBRE highlights the need to disperse tourists to other infrastructures and points of interest, but the expectation is that the number of tourists will continue to increase (within the limits of what is possible). This is because a large increase in tourists from various Eastern countries is expected, who have availability and purchasing power, and their choice of Europe "is inevitable".
Much of the tourist movement is also driving the dynamism of shopping centres, whose sales increased by 43% in 2025 (APCC figures). It also keeps prime street retail rents high, namely €145/sqm/month on Rua Garret in Lisbon, which is expected to continue to grow this year, predictably up to €155. Despite the different figures, the trend is the same in Santa Catarina, in Porto.
Retail parks stand out in the new offering and are expected to grow by a further 62% by 2028. CBRE alone is marketing several assets in this segment in Portimão, Fânzeres, Monção, Viseu, Faro, Ponta Delgada, Covilhã and Moita.
Logistics awaits new product
When it comes to logistics, Portugal is bucking the European trend. While in the "Old Continent" the construction of new industrial and logistics assets has outpaced the rate of demand absorption, particularly after the pandemic, the same has not happened in this country, where absorption has been increasing significantly. More investors are showing interest in investing in logistics projects, but licensing has delayed the launch of new projects. All modern assets are sold very quickly, which has already led to rents doubling since 2018, both in the Lisbon and Porto areas.
Several projects developed speculatively in recent years ended up being leased even before construction was completed, which shows the good dynamics of the market. According to CBRE, "we have little availability of assets in Portugal, which also affects occupancy. Demand is waiting for square metres".
In any case, the consultancy believes that annual take-up should remain around 300,000 square metres, even with all the geopolitical and logistical instability worldwide. "We have fundamentals that central Europe does not have, and that can work in our favour".
Expecting "market consolidation"
According to José Maria Moutinho, the current market pipeline known to CBRE does not allow for predicting investment growth in 2026 for the time being, so the consultancy expects "market consolidation," accompanied by stable yields in all sectors, except for a slight decline in the hotel sector.
