International

POWER SHIFTS AND A NEW CYCLE FOR EUROPE’S LISTED REAL ESTATE

POWER SHIFTS AND A NEW CYCLE FOR EUROPE’S LISTED REAL ESTATE
Grand Hôtel Stockholm, Sweden.

The macro context framed much of the debate. Global GDP has more than tripled since the turn of the century — from €32 trillion to today’s €114 trillion, with the IMF projecting €145 trillion by 2030. But this expansion has shifted in character: where investors once focused on yields, then on growth, the next cycle is set to be dominated by debt. Declining growth prospects — just 3.0% annually compared with 4.5% before the Global Financial Crisis — weigh more heavily when measured against slowing population growth, pointing to a structural “sluggish pace” for the global economy. Meanwhile, tariffs are now an entrenched feature of the system, accounting for 5% of U.S. revenues, while central banks appear to have lost their anticipatory role, reacting to markets rather than guiding them. The result is steeper yield curves, fragile debt dynamics and persistent uncertainty over capital flows.

These global shifts inevitably shape Europe’s listed real estate landscape. Market capitalisation in the region, measured only on free float, has doubled in the past year. Yet the sector still finds itself pulled in two directions: expansion through new listings and alternative sectors on one side, and companies delisting to escape regulatory and structural hurdles on the other. In Spain, for instance, listing requirements continue are many times seen as unflexible to companies activities pushing firms to go private, depriving the market of depth. This explains why calls for a harmonised European listing framework are gaining momentum, with the argument that companies should be listed in a single market, under one set of rules. Without such reform, Europe risks undermining its own competitiveness in attracting growth capital.

The search for alpha is increasingly driving attention to alternative sectors. Student housing, healthcare, logistics, and data centres are emerging as the “nests” of future expansion, offering more resilient demand fundamentals and diversification opportunities compared with traditional asset classes. This trend mirrors a broader shift in investor priorities: passive diversification has slowed, fewer new investors are entering the U.S., the dollar’s dominance feels less secure, and bonds and yields are once again diverging. In this environment, European real estate can position itself as a more attractive play — provided it evolves.

Sweden offered a fitting backdrop for the conference, not only as the host nation but also as a model. With 65 listed real estate companies, Sweden stands out in Europe for its equity investment culture, high transparency and tradition of entrepreneurship. Citizens’ long-standing appetite for equity has historically supported the growth of industrial champions and is now underpinning the success of its listed property sector. The Swedish model demonstrates how transparency and equity participation can anchor resilience and growth, lessons that resonate well beyond Scandinavia.

At the same time, Europe’s listed companies cannot ignore the global context. U.S. REITs such as Digital Realty and Realty Income used the conference to signal their confidence in Europe, underlining how boldness, innovation and disciplined balance-sheet management are critical to unlocking value. Their message echoed throughout Stockholm: optimise both assets and liabilities, and prepare for a cycle where leverage will be scrutinised more than ever.

The launch of the Global REIT Alliance (GRA) during the conference reinforced this international outlook. By connecting REIT associations worldwide, the GRA aims to drive smarter policy, harmonise standards and strengthen collaboration. For Europe, which continues to lose ground to the U.S. in venture capital and high-growth company retention, this global alignment could prove vital.

Despite the volatility, sentiment in Stockholm was cautiously constructive. Delegates acknowledged persistent headwinds — from geopolitical tensions to sluggish growth — yet also recognised the opportunities arising from scale, consolidation and new asset classes. The “power shift” is real: Europe’s listed real estate sector must navigate a world of higher debt, greater transparency demands and more volatile capital markets. But with harmonised rules, strategic use of alternatives, and a renewed focus on equity culture, it can become not just a defensive play, but a central driver of Europe’s next economic chapter.

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